Nigeria’s States Unveil Ambitious 2026 Budgets: Inside the New Subnational Growth Race
As Nigeria marches into a defining year for economic restructuring, subnational governments have fired the first shots in what is shaping up to be the most aggressive budget cycle in the Fourth Republic. From Lagos to Zamfara, Enugu to Kaduna, and Ogun to Bauchi, state governors are tabling unprecedented fiscal blueprints in their 2026 Budgets—some crossing the trillion-naira threshold—in a sweeping push to rebuild infrastructure, expand human capital, and accelerate economic competitiveness under new national realities.
Collectively, the states presenting 2026 budgets so far signal a structural pivot: bigger budgets, bolder capital spending, sharper development postures, and a more assertive role in Nigeria’s economic transformation.
Yet beyond the press releases lies a deeper story—one of ambition, fiscal pressure, policy risk, uneven capacity, and regional divergence. BRANDECONOMY breaks it all down.
A New Fiscal Wave: Which Governors Have Presented 2026 Budgets?
As of early December 2025, at least 10 states have formally presented their 2026 Appropriation Bills:
- Lagos – Gov. Babajide Sanwo-Olu – ₦4.237 trillion
- Ogun – Gov. Dapo Abiodun – ₦1.67 trillion
- Zamfara – Gov. Dauda Lawal – ₦861 billion
- Kogi – Gov. Ahmed Usman Ododo – ₦820.49 billion
- Enugu – Gov. Peter Mbah – ₦1.62 trillion
- Kaduna – Gov. Uba Sani – ₦985.9 billion
- Osun – Gov. Ademola Adeleke – ₦705.79 billion
- Abia – Gov. Alex Otti – ₦1.016 trillion
- Anambra – Gov. Charles Soludo – ~₦757 billion
- Bauchi – Gov. Bala Mohammed – ₦878.15 billion
Across these states, no fiscal year in history has opened with this scale of ambition—particularly in infrastructure, education, health, and economic expansion.
State-by-State Breakdown: What the 2026 Budgets Reveal
Lagos (₦4.237 trillion)
Nigeria’s commercial capital leads the pack with a budget larger than those of several West African countries combined.
- Massive allocations to infrastructure, transport modernization, housing, education, health, and environmental management.
- Revenue projection of ₦3.993 trillion, leaving a financing gap of ₦243.3 billion—manageable but significant.
Signal: Lagos is betting heavily on scale, density, and productivity.
Ogun (₦1.67 trillion) – “Budget of Sustainable Legacy”
- Capital spending: 63%
- Recurrent: 37%
- Strong emphasis on roads, schools, agriculture, and industrial expansion.
- IGR projection: ₦509.88 billion.
Signal: Ogun positions itself as Nigeria’s next industrial heartland after Lagos.
Zamfara (₦861 billion) – “Budget of Stability and Growth”
- A striking 83% capital expenditure—the highest ratio so far nationwide.
- Heavy funding for education (₦65bn), health (₦87bn), agriculture (₦86bn), security, and environment.
Signal: A security-stricken state making a bold developmental U-turn.
Kogi (₦820.49 billion) – “Budget of Shared Prosperity”
- Represents a 35.7% increase from the 2025 budget.
- Sustained focus on roads, social welfare, and public administration efficiency.
Signal: A long-term play to reposition Kogi as a regional commerce and logistics hub.
Enugu (₦1.62 trillion) – “Budget of Renewed Momentum”
- 66% increase from 2025.
- Focus on industrial growth, human capital, and digital transformation.
Signal: Enugu sets the tone for a new economic identity in the South-East.
Kaduna (₦985.9 billion)
- 71% capital spending, 29% recurrent.
- Emphasis on infrastructure, education, security, and rural transformation.
Signal: A pro-poor, pro-development fiscal orientation.
Osun (₦705.79 billion) – “Budget of Economic Transformation”
- Capex: 55%
- Recurrent: 45%
- Renewed focus on MSME support, roads, and agriculture.
Signal: Osun is leaning into structural reforms.
Abia (₦1.016 trillion) – “Budget of Acceleration and New Possibilities”
- 13% increase from 2025.
- Strong push on road networks, SME financing, healthcare, and digital governance.
Signal: Abia doubles down on modernization.
Anambra (~₦757 billion)
- Strong allocations to health, education, and road infrastructure.
- Teacher salaries and human capital take priority.
Signal: Soludo expands his technocratic reform agenda.
Bauchi (₦878.15 billion) – “Budget of Consolidation and Sustainability”
- Capex: ₦567bn (~65%)
- Recurrent: ₦310bn
- Strong alignment with agricultural expansion and industrial renewal.
Signal: Bauchi consolidates gains while preparing for future competitiveness.
How 2026 Budgets Diverge from 2025: The Big Shifts
Across the presenting states, three big trends define the 2026 fiscal posture:
1. Record-Breaking Capital Expenditure
2026 marks a pivot toward infrastructure, economic diversification, and human-capital investment.
Many states now allocate 55–83% of their budgets to capex, a historic shift from the recurrent-heavy post-2015 cycle.
2. Bolder Fiscal Ambition
Most 2026 budgets grew enormously compared to 2025:
- Lagos: +₦1 trillion
- Enugu: +66%
- Kogi: +35.7%
- Abia: +13%
This reflects both higher developmental appetite and inflation-linked cost realities.
3. Revenue Pressure & Fiscal Risks
IGR projections are climbing sharply.
Dependence on FAAC inflows remains high.
Borrowing requirements may rise.
Fiscal sustainability will be tested in 2026.
How Well Did States Perform in 2025? (Relative, Qualitative Scale)
While comprehensive audited 2025 performance data is not yet available, early indicators show:
- Top performers (based on infrastructure delivery, IGR growth, reform execution):
Lagos, Ogun, Enugu, Abia, Kaduna - Mid-tier performers (moderate gains, structural constraints):
Bauchi, Kogi, Osun, Anambra - High-risk but improving:
Zamfara (security and institutional challenges persist)
This scale will be refined once state-by-state implementation reports are made public.
Ranking States’ Prospects of Achieving 2026 Goals (Based on Budget Structure & Realism)
Tier 1 — Strong Prospects (High Fiscal Power + Strong Execution Capacity)
Lagos, Ogun, Enugu, Abia, Kaduna
These states combine strong institutions, revenue potential, and reform momentum.
Tier 2 — Moderate Prospects (Ambition + Capacity Gaps)
Bauchi, Osun, Kogi, Anambra
Execution capacity will determine outcomes.
Tier 3 — Uncertain Prospects (High Ambition + Structural Risk)
Zamfara
Massive capex is bold, but security realities may constrain execution.
BRANDECONOMY Analysis: What It All Means
Nigeria’s 2026 state budgets are not merely annual fiscal rituals—they are a map of political priorities, economic aspirations, and subnational competitiveness in the new Nigerian economy.
Key insights:
- A developmental state is emerging at subnational level.
- Governors are under pressure to deliver “visible” infrastructure.
- Fiscal realism vs political ambition is the biggest risk.
- States are now competing for talent, capital, and investment narrative.
2026 may well become the year Nigeria begins resolving a long-standing national challenge: the imbalance between federal power and subnational productivity.
