FirstBank MD Alebiosu Sees 2026 as Inflection Year for Banking Stability, Credit Expansion
Nigeria is heading into 2026 with a firmer economic footing, as policy discipline, financial-sector reforms and improving market confidence begin to translate into tangible growth momentum. That was the central message from Olusegun Alebiosu, Managing Director of First Bank of Nigeria, who outlined a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year ahead.
Speaking at the Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 forum in Lagos — themed “The Great Calibration: Mastering Resilience in an Era of Asynchronous Growth” — Alebiosu described Nigeria’s current trajectory as a measured recalibration rather than a sudden rebound, shaped by macroeconomic reforms, tighter financial governance and renewed activity in productive sectors.
From Volatility to Rebalancing
According to Alebiosu, Nigeria’s economy has endured inflationary pressure, currency realignments and external shocks, yet has shown resilience through innovation and structural reform. These adjustments, he noted, are now beginning to stabilise markets and restore investor confidence.
“The recalibration underway is not accidental,” he said. “It is the product of policy discipline, reforms in the financial system and a renewed focus on productivity.”
He added that Nigeria’s competitiveness in the coming cycle will depend on human capital development, scalable infrastructure, disciplined reforms and stronger public-private collaboration — all of which are essential to converting stability into sustainable growth.
Why Lending Is Poised to Rise
A key pillar of Alebiosu’s outlook for 2026 is credit expansion, underpinned by easing inflation, improving liquidity conditions and the ongoing bank recapitalisation programme.
According to him, banks are entering the new year with stronger balance sheets and greater capacity to support the real economy.
“Liquidity is improving, and interest rates are expected to moderate,” Alebiosu said. “Lending will increase — provided credit decisions remain disciplined and growth-oriented.”
This, he argued, positions the banking sector as a central transmission channel for economic recovery, particularly for manufacturing, infrastructure and trade-linked industries.
Naira Assets Regain Their Appeal
In a notable signal of confidence, Alebiosu urged Nigerians — especially those in the diaspora — to rethink the long-standing habit of holding savings in foreign currencies.
“With a stabilising and appreciating naira, returns on naira-denominated assets are increasingly outperforming foreign holdings,” he said. “Keeping idle money abroad is becoming economically inefficient.”
He cited stronger external reserves, rising foreign inflows and improved buffers against volatile capital movements as evidence that Nigeria’s macro-financial position has strengthened.
Real Sector Signals Turning Positive
Beyond banking, Alebiosu pointed to rising industrial activity, decentralised power generation and easing food and fuel prices as indicators that distortions in key markets are gradually unwinding.
He also highlighted improved resilience to capital flow volatility, noting that Nigeria is now better positioned to absorb sudden movements in portfolio investment without destabilising the system.
Growth Outlook: Calm Before Acceleration
Looking ahead, Alebiosu projected economic growth of between 7 and 10 per cent in 2026, including during the election cycle — a period traditionally associated with uncertainty.
“There will be no crisis,” he said. “The economy is stabilising, and post-election growth could accelerate faster than we have seen in years.”
BRANDECONOMY INSIGHT
What stands out in Alebiosu’s outlook is not exuberance, but institutional confidence. The emphasis on disciplined lending, balance-sheet strength and structural reform signals a banking sector preparing to lead — not chase — Nigeria’s next growth phase. If macro stability holds, 2026 could mark the year banking shifts from risk containment to measured expansion.
