Why consolidating 2025 reforms—not policy overload—will determine Nigeria’s growth credibility in 2026
After a bruising cycle of reforms and recalibration in 2025, Nigeria now stands at a delicate inflection point. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has issued a clear strategic warning to policymakers: 2026 must not become another year of policy turbulence, but one of consolidation, execution, and structural repair.
In a forward-looking economic assessment, LCCI President, Mr. Leye Kupoluyi, framed 2025 as a year of hard choices, cautious stabilisation, and fragile recovery—but one that still fell short of delivering inclusive growth or restoring household prosperity at scale.
For Nigeria’s business community, the message is unmistakable: macroeconomic stability alone is not enough—structural bottlenecks must finally be dismantled.
2025 in Review: Reforms, Resilience—and Lingering Fault Lines
According to the LCCI, 2025 will be remembered as a transitional year marked by reform fatigue but strategic progress.
Key milestones included:
- GDP rebasing, which recalibrated Nigeria’s economic measurement base
- Nigeria’s exit from the FATF grey list, improving global financial credibility
- Oversubscribed Eurobond issuance, reflecting cautious investor confidence
- Tax and fiscal reform initiatives, aimed at strengthening revenue mobilisation
Yet beneath these achievements lay unresolved vulnerabilities.
While GDP growth showed modest improvement, budget execution struggled under transition pressures, and public debt dynamics continued to test fiscal resilience. Growth remained too weak to meaningfully lift incomes, reduce poverty, or rebuild purchasing power.
Energy and FX Relief: Dangote Refinery’s Quiet Structural Impact
One of the most consequential shifts of 2025 came from the real sector, not policy communiqués.
The expansion of domestic crude oil refining capacity—led by the Dangote Refinery—reduced Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports, eased pressure on foreign exchange demand, and subtly reshaped inflation dynamics.
This marked a structural—not cyclical—win, reinforcing the argument that productive capacity, not subsidies, is Nigeria’s most powerful anti-inflation tool.
The Business Reality: High Costs, Weak Demand, Policy Friction
Despite reform headlines, Nigerian businesses continued to operate under intense strain.
The LCCI identified persistent constraints:
- Elevated inflation and weakened consumer demand
- Ongoing foreign exchange volatility
- Widespread insecurity disrupting supply chains
- High energy, logistics, and transport costs
- Inconsistent policies and multiple taxation
Economic growth, while positive, remained insufficient to drive competitiveness, expand employment, or restore confidence across MSMEs and industrial players.
2026 Imperative: Consolidation Over Experimentation
Looking ahead, the LCCI’s prescription for 2026 is disciplined and unambiguous: consolidate reforms, fix structures, unlock productivity.
1. Policy Coordination Over Policy Volume
Sustained alignment between fiscal and monetary authorities is critical to:
- Entrench disinflation
- Gradually ease interest rates
- Unlock private-sector credit and investment
2. Food Security as an Inflation Strategy
Disinflation will fail without food stability. The LCCI urges:
- Improved security in food-producing regions
- Targeted agricultural support
- Stronger rural infrastructure and logistics
3. FX Confidence Through Exports, Not Controls
Foreign exchange stability must be anchored in:
- Export diversification
- Targeted support for non-oil exporters
- Transparent, market-driven FX frameworks
4. Infrastructure as a Cost-Reduction Strategy
Power, transport, and logistics infrastructure—delivered through credible public-private partnerships—remain Nigeria’s most effective competitiveness lever.
5. Tax Reform With Growth Sensitivity
The effective implementation of the Tax Reform Act must:
- Simplify compliance
- Reduce pressure on productive enterprises
- Broaden the tax base without choking growth
Beyond Stability: The Real Test of Reform
Perhaps the most consequential insight from the LCCI’s outlook is philosophical rather than technical.
2025 marked Nigeria’s exit from crisis management into cautious stabilisation.
2026 must be the year reforms translate into real prosperity.
That means:
- Rebuilding household purchasing power
- Supporting pro-poor and youth-focused investments
- Strengthening social safety nets
- Accelerating job creation across MSMEs and value-adding sectors
Without this pivot, macroeconomic gains risk becoming statistical victories with limited social legitimacy.
BRANDECONOMY Insight
Nigeria’s reform era has entered its most dangerous phase—not because of failure, but because of reform fatigue. The real risk in 2026 is not under-reforming, but over-experimenting.
Markets reward predictability. Businesses scale on confidence. Households recover on purchasing power.
The LCCI’s message is timely: the era of shock therapy must give way to the era of disciplined execution. Only then can Nigeria move from stabilisation to shared prosperity.
