Nigeria stands at a defining inflection point. With the naira’s structural adjustments, renewed foreign exchange reforms, and intensifying AfCFTA integration pressures, the question is no longer whether Nigeria should expand trade — it is whether the architecture of its forex and trade finance systems can support it.
Access to foreign exchange has become one of the most powerful determinants of who survives, who scales, and who exits the Nigerian economy. The issue is not merely liquidity; it is inclusion.
At the 2026 Ecobank Nigeria Customer Forum in Lagos, senior officials from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Afreximbank, fintech operators and agribusiness leaders converged around a central thesis: inclusive forex and trade finance access is the real lever for regional export growth.
This is not a routine policy conversation. It is an industrial competitiveness debate.
The Structural Context: Nigeria’s Forex Reform Moment
For decades, Nigeria’s foreign exchange system has oscillated between centralised allocation, market reforms, and crisis management. The result has been episodic distortions — with large corporates often absorbing the bulk of access while SMEs struggle with cost, uncertainty, and exclusion.
Mr Tiku Allu, Assistant Director, Imports and Trade Relations Office, Trade and Exchange Department, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), made the reform direction clear:
“Our focus is to create a level playing field so access is not concentrated among a few large corporates. When access is broadened, the real sector feels the impact and trade expands.”
This statement signals a shift from defensive FX management to productive allocation strategy.
Broad-based access improves:
- SME participation in cross-border trade
- Market confidence and price discovery
- Export competitiveness
- Industrial planning stability
Without inclusive forex, industrial policy becomes aspirational rather than executable.
Trade Finance: The Real Cost of Production
Beyond access to FX lies a deeper constraint — the cost and availability of finance.
Dr Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director, Research and Trade Intelligence at African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), reframed the issue:
“Access to finance is one of the most important costs of production. Improving the availability and affordability of financing will increase output, lower production costs and support export growth.”
This is economically decisive. When financing costs fall:
- Firms scale output
- Unit costs decline
- Exports become price-competitive
- Employment expands
However, Kale emphasised inclusion:
“It is not just the volume of loans that matters; what matters is how widely they reach businesses, especially smaller firms.”
Nigeria’s challenge is not credit scarcity alone — it is credit concentration.
If finance reaches only the top tier, industrial depth will remain shallow.
Digital Payments and Remittances: The Quiet Trade Enabler
Trade integration increasingly depends on frictionless payment systems.
Mr Robert Kotei, Operations Director for Africa, RIA Money Transfer, highlighted a structural shift:
“Digitisation is fueling trade and economic growth across Africa. In Nigeria, nearly 80 per cent of inflows now go directly into bank and digital accounts.”
This transformation reduces:
- Informality
- Cash leakage
- Settlement delays
Yet a critical bottleneck persists — cost.
“It can cost more to send money within Africa than from outside the continent. Reducing these costs will significantly boost regional trade and integration.”
Intra-African trade cannot scale if payment corridors remain expensive and fragmented. AfCFTA’s promise depends as much on payment efficiency as tariff liberalisation.
The Value Addition Imperative: From Raw Exports to Industrialisation
Perhaps the most structural intervention came from agribusiness leader Alhaji Taiwo Ayoade, Deputy Managing Director, Agro Trader Group:
“Africa produces raw materials but imports finished goods. That means we export jobs, prosperity and industrial growth.”
This is the core industrial paradox.
West Africa dominates cocoa supply yet processes only a fraction locally. The issue is not production — it is value capture.
Ayoade’s argument is blunt:
“The issue is not just increasing production; it is adding value. Only when we process and manufacture locally can we truly trade within Africa.”
Industrialisation requires:
- Affordable machinery imports
- Lower logistics costs
- Rational export levies
- Infrastructure upgrades
He noted a troubling distortion:
“Moving goods within West Africa can cost more than shipping them to Europe.”
That statistic alone explains why regional trade underperforms.
Core Analysis: The Power Dynamics at Play
This debate is not technocratic — it is structural.
1. Concentrated Forex = Concentrated Growth
If forex allocation favours a narrow corporate elite, industrial inclusion weakens.
2. High Financing Costs = Export Suppression
Expensive capital erodes competitiveness.
3. Weak Payment Integration = Regional Fragmentation
Digital integration determines trade velocity.
4. Raw Export Model = Perpetual Underdevelopment
Without value addition, Nigeria exports volatility instead of prosperity.
The intersection of these variables determines whether Nigeria becomes a regional manufacturing hub or remains a commodity transit economy.
Implications for Business, Markets and Policy
For Policymakers
- Institutionalise transparent FX allocation frameworks
- Deepen trade finance windows for SMEs
- Remove import duties on industrial equipment
- Harmonise AfCFTA implementation domestically
- Reduce cross-border payment friction
For Investors
- Monitor sectors benefiting from inclusive FX reforms
- Watch export-oriented agribusiness and light manufacturing
- Evaluate fintech/payment infrastructure plays
For SMEs
- Position early for regional value chains
- Leverage digitised remittance channels
- Build compliance capacity for export financing
Forward Outlook: Three Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Coordinated Reform (High-Impact)
Inclusive FX + Affordable Trade Finance + Payment Integration
→ Export expansion
→ Manufacturing growth
→ Regional dominance
Scenario 2: Partial Reform (Moderate Impact)
Improved FX but high financing costs
→ Limited export diversification
Scenario 3: Policy Fragmentation (Low Impact)
Uneven allocation + Infrastructure gaps
→ Capital flight
→ Import dependency persists
Nigeria’s trade trajectory will depend on which path policymakers institutionalise.
BRANDECONOMY Insight
The forex debate is often framed as a monetary issue. It is not. It is an industrial design decision.
When access to forex and finance is inclusive, production expands. When it is narrow, economic opportunity concentrates.
The real reform question is this:
Will Nigeria’s forex architecture become a catalyst for regional industrial leadership — or remain a gatekeeper of scarcity?
The answer will define Nigeria’s trade profile for the next decade.
