Tinubu, Wike, Fubara and the Rivers of Crisis

By Nnanke Harry Willie

The seeds of the crisis in Rivers State were planted long before the shenanigans that have been unfolding for over a year. The oil-rich state is suffering the consequences that are replicated at different levels in all states of Nigeria including the federal government. That seed is our peculiar brand of ‘strongman’ democracy.

Strongman democracy takes the right to elect (read choose) a political office holder from the electorate, the registered voters, to the strongman who is otherwise known as a political godfather. The godfather musters all resources both legal and illegal to battle and force his chosen candidate into office and then sits back to enjoy the spoils of his investment and battles. Failure by the the beneficiary candidate to deliver often leads to chaos, pains and sometimes, mayhem as the ‘offended’ godfather pulls all the strings to unseat the godson or god-daughter or make him and his constituents suffer dire consequences.

Tinubu declares state of emergency in Rivers, Suspends Governor Fubara, House of Assembly

Godfatherism is at the heart of Nigeria’s decadent socio-economic situation as most political office holders are compelled to pay back their godfathers with obscene loads of the commonwealth of those they are meant to serve. since 1999, Nigerians have been holding the short end of the stick while godfathers feed fat with their chosen pawns.

The ongoing political crisis in Rivers State is thus a textbook example of the dangers of political godfatherism, overbearing ambition, and the mercenary nature of Nigeria’s political elite. At the heart of this turmoil are three key figures: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nyesom Wike, and the embattled Governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara. The crisis, which is a direct fallout of the 2023 elections, has left the state teetering on the edge of anarchy.

The political landscape of Rivers State has been marred by a deepening crisis since the 2023 elections, a saga that intertwines the ambitions of President Bola Tinubu, former Governor Nyesom Wike, and current Governor Siminalayi Fubara. This complex web of power struggles and political maneuvering has exposed the underbelly of Nigerian politics, revealing a system where influence, intimidation, and legal battles are the tools of the trade.

 

The Wike Factor: A Machiavellian Playbook

To understand the genesis of the crisis, one must examine Wike’s role in the 2023 elections. A strongman with a reputation for brute political force, Wike wielded security forces, state resources, and street-level enforcers to intimidate and emasculate other aspirants, ensuring that his handpicked candidate, Fubara, emerged victorious in the governorship elections. It was an open secret that Fubara, a career civil servant with no discernible political ambition, was merely an extension of Wike’s hold on power—a placeholder chosen for loyalty rather than competence.

Wike employed the same strong-arm tactics during the presidential election. Despite being a PDP governor, he orchestrated a shocking ‘landslide’ victory for the APC’s Bola Tinubu in Rivers State . The election was reportedly marred by allegations of voter suppression, result-tampering and violence. Wike allegedly leveraged the security agencies and state apparatus and other tolls of coercion to ‘deliver’ Rivers to Tinubu, solidifying his influence within the ruling party and securing a reward in the form of the FCT Ministerial appointment.

Fubara’s Struggles: A Pawn Turned Opponent

Upon assuming office, Fubara quickly found himself ensnared in the complex web of political intrigues he was ill-prepared for. To his shock, virtually all his political appointees were frontloaded for him by his able godfather, Wike. Fubara’s early moves, seen as an attempt to assert independence from Wike, were, however, clumsy and reactive rather than strategic. His naivety was evident in the manner he sought to dismantle Wike’s influence, including the removal of the key political appointees, and legislators loyal to his predecessor.

 

Wike, who has established himself as a fomidable political foe and not one to relinquish power easily, struck back by activating his loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly, leading to the infamous defection of 27 lawmakers from the PDP to the APC. This legislative coup not only weakened Fubara’s political standing but also set the stage for a constitutional crisis, as the lawmakers later bizarrely claimed they never actually defected—a clear attempt to avoid the consequences of cross-carpeting.

As the crisis escalated, Fubara took increasingly desperate measures to retain control. His combative stance against the Assembly and his open confrontations with security agencies painted a picture of a man struggling to remain afloat in turbulent waters. His unguarded utterances, at times inflammatory have been given as some of the reasons that led to his suspension by President Bola Tinubu. No doubt, Fubara still has a lot to learn in the murky and dangerous waters of politics!

Tinubu: The Godfather Above all Godfathers

If anyone should receive an award as Nigeria’s all-time successful ultimate godfather, President Boal Ahmed Tinubu will definitely receive that award. He is credited as installing state governors, legislators in state and National Assemblies as well as President Muhammadu Buhari. Of course, he has also installed himself and is now entrenching himself as the godfather of godfathers.

While the Rivers State crisis has been portrayed as a Wike-Fubara battle, a closer look reveals President Tinubu as the overarching powerbroker. Wike’s political survival is tied to Tinubu’s goodwill, and the President has, at various points, interfered in the crisis, using federal might to tip the scales in Wike’s favor.

Tinubu’s intervention has been anything but neutral. His reluctance to decisively rein in Wike has emboldened the former governor, who continues to act with impunity. The President’s tacit endorsement of Wike’s maneuvers (likely in appreciation of his ‘loyalty’ during the 2023 elections) has further destabilized Rivers State, reinforcing the culture of political impunity that has long plagued Nigeria. The recent contentious State of Emergency declaration in Rivers by President Tinubu is the trump card that no one saw coming.

The Judiciary’s Role: A Catalyst for Crisis

The judiciary, expected to be the neutral arbiter in political disputes, has only exacerbated the crisis. Contradictory court rulings, questionable injunctions, and overt political partisanship have all but eroded public confidence in the judicial process.

The handling of the defection saga by the courts has been particularly egregious. The defecting lawmakers have played legal gymnastics, seeking contradictory interpretations of the law to maintain their seats while openly aligning with the APC.

Similarly, judicial interventions in the power struggle between Fubara and Wike’s loyalists have been inconsistent, further emboldening both sides to act with impunity. Instead of being a stabilizing force, the judiciary has become a weaponized tool, used selectively to serve political interests rather than justice. The judiciary’s final stance on the matter as captured by the supreme court ruling has raised significant angst and deepened the constitutional crisis.

Will they listen to Former President Jonathan?

President Jonathan has joined many Nigerians to condemn the suspension of democratic rule in Rivers State, saying he was disappointed that elected officials were removed. He said: “These actions by key actors in the executive and legislative arms of government paint the country in a negative light,”

Jonathan maintained that the image and investment opportunities of the country heavily depended on the actions of the executive, legislature, and judiciary. He blamed the three arms of government for their roles in the Rivers crisis, accusing them of engaging in abuse of power.

“The key actors in Nigeria from the executive to the legislature and the judiciary know the correct thing to do but they are refusing to do it; they are pretending to sleep, and waking such a person is extremely difficult because the person knows the right thing.”

“A clear abuse of offices, clear abuse of power, clear abuse of privileges, cutting across the three arms of government: from the executive through the parliament and to the judiciary.”

Jonathan’s words echoes the views of millions of Nigerians who are looking on in awe and exaspeartion as Nigeria gets asphyxiated and decimated by the godfatherism syndrome.

 

Implications of the Rivers crisis

The Rivers crisis is actually an all-Nigerian crisis. It underscores the fragile nature of Nigerian democracy, where political loyalty supersedes institutional integrity. Fubara’s battle for survival, Wike’s unrelenting grip on power, and Tinubu’s calculated interference all point to a broader systemic failure where personal ambition trumps governance.

Unless there is a reset, Rivers State will remain a hotbed of political instability. The lessons from this crisis are clear: until Nigeria moves beyond the culture of godfatherism and political mercenaries, governance will remain secondary to power struggles, with the people bearing the ultimate cost. as former President Jonathan said: “These actions by key actors in the executive and legislative arms of government paint the country in a negative light,”