Nigeria’s economy is gathering steam once again. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a year-on-year real growth of 3.13% in Q1 2025, signaling renewed momentum across key sectors of the economy.
The growth, an improvement from 2.27% in Q1 2024, comes on the back of strategic rebasing efforts, deeper data coverage, and modest recovery in consumer demand. Speaking at a press briefing in Abuja, Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, described the Q1 figures as the first full assessment under the rebased GDP framework using 2019 as the new base year.
What’s Driving Nigeria’s Economic Growth?
According to the NBS data:
- The services sector remained the main growth driver, expanding by 4.33% and contributing 57.5% to the total GDP.
- The industry sector posted a solid 3.42% growth, while
- The agriculture sector, which contracted in Q1 2024, edged back into positive territory with 0.07% growth.
In nominal terms, Nigeria’s GDP was valued at ₦94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, up from ₦79.50 trillion in the same period last year — representing a nominal growth rate of 18.3%.
BRANDECONOMY ANALYSIS: Beyond the Numbers
This 3.13% GDP growth rate may appear modest, but in the context of global headwinds, domestic monetary tightening, and fiscal consolidation, it reflects increasing resilience and diversification in Nigeria’s economic base.
Crucially, the rebasing exercise reveals a structural shift in Nigeria’s GDP composition, highlighting the rising contributions of sectors previously under-reported:
- Real Estate, now ranks third, displacing crude oil and gas which traditionally occupied that position.
- Telecommunications, trade, and transport services also emerged as significant contributors under the new statistical methodology.
This recalibration is not merely technical — it provides a more realistic lens through which to view Nigeria’s evolving economy, especially in the digital, creative, and informal sectors.
The Informal Economy: Now in Sharper Focus
One of the most significant revelations from the rebased data is the increased weight of the informal sector, now estimated to contribute ₦86.85 trillion — or 42.5% of GDP, up from the previous 41.4%. This adjustment was informed by recent fieldwork including the National Agricultural Sample Census and Surveys, which enhanced coverage of agro-enterprises and non-registered businesses.
Such better measurement of previously undocumented economic activity underscores Nigeria’s untapped productivity potential and highlights the importance of ongoing digital and financial inclusion policies.
GDP Growth Trend (Rebased) – A Snapshot:
| Year | Nominal GDP (₦ Trillion) | Real GDP Growth (%) |
| 2019 | 205.09 | 2.21 (Old) / +41.7% rebased |
| 2020 | 213.64 | -6.96 (COVID impact) |
| 2021 | 243.30 | 0.95 |
| 2022 | 274.23 | 4.32 |
| 2023 | 314.02 | 3.04 |
| 2024 | 372.82 | 3.38 |
Sector Rankings by Contribution (2025):
- Crop Production – 17.58%
- Trade – 17.42%
- Real Estate – 10.78%
- Telecommunications – 6.78%
- Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas – 5.85%
The repositioning of real estate and services sectors reflects Nigeria’s urbanization, digitization, and a youthful entrepreneurial base, especially in cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Enugu.
Rebasing: What It Means for Investors, Policymakers, and Stakeholders
Nigeria’s latest GDP rebasing, a decade after the 2014 exercise that used 2010 as the base year, brings the country’s national accounts closer in line with international statistical standards (as recommended by the UN and IMF).
Why it matters:
- Investors get a more accurate picture of sectoral opportunities and risks.
- Policymakers are better equipped to align infrastructure, finance, and labour policies.
- Development agencies and DFIs gain more credible data for funding decisions.
- Nigerians are reminded of the increasing role of sectors such as entertainment, health services, logistics, and fintech in shaping the country’s economic narrative.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria’s Q1 2025 GDP growth of 3.13% is more than a statistic — it’s a signal of an evolving economy that is becoming increasingly diversified, digitally-enabled, and driven by service-sector momentum. As policymakers double down on reforms and investment in digital infrastructure, power, and human capital, the road to sustained 6–7% growth — necessary to combat poverty and unemployment — is no longer an illusion but a policy imperative.
