Nigeria’s Daily Fuel Use Hits 56.7m Litres as Refining Capacity Slowly Rebounds
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum landscape is undergoing one of its most consequential transitions in decades, with fresh verified data revealing major shifts in supply patterns, consumption trends, and domestic refining output.
According to a new fact sheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), national daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) averaged 56.74 million litres in October 2025, a figure that underscores Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest fuel market.
But the real story lies beneath the headline numbers: the country is inching away from near-total import dependence and gradually building the foundation for true energy independence.
🔹 Refining Output: Dangote Drives New Domestic Supply Reality
The NMDPRA data reveals a clear shift in Nigeria’s PMS sourcing:
- 27.6 million litres came from fuel imports
- 17.08 million litres came from domestic refineries, anchored almost entirely by the Dangote Refinery
The report shows the refinery produced 18.03 million litres per day, about 51% of its programmed PMS capacity (35 million litres daily). While still short of full optimisation, Dangote’s contribution represents the most significant domestic PMS production Nigeria has recorded in decades.
By contrast, all three NNPC refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna recorded zero PMS output during the month.
🔹 Why NNPC Refineries Remain Offline
The NMDPRA provides a chronicle of ongoing rehabilitation challenges:
- Port Harcourt Refinery
- Restarted late 2024
- Shutdown in May 2025 for planned maintenance & sustainability tests
- Restarted late 2024
- Warri Refinery
- Came online in December 2024
- Shut down in January 2025 due to critical safety concerns
- Came online in December 2024
- Kaduna Refinery
- Still undergoing rehabilitation
- No fuel output recorded
- Still undergoing rehabilitation
These inconsistencies reinforce why Dangote Refinery and modular refineries are becoming critical to Nigeria’s downstream stability.
🔹 Nigeria Consumed More Than Just PMS in October 2025
Beyond petrol, the consumption footprint for other fuels shows a nation with significant and diversified energy demand:
- Diesel: 17.13 million litres/day
- Aviation fuel: 2.61 million litres/day
- Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): 6,095 MT/day
The LPG figure signals rising adoption of cleaner fuels, driven by pricing reforms and increased domestic supply.
🔹 Fuel Demand Trends: October Tops the Charts
Over the one-year period (Oct 2024–Oct 2025), Nigeria consumed an average 661.5 million litres of PMS monthly. October posted the highest consumption, followed by:
- November 2024: 56 million litres
- April 2025: 55.2 million litres
These patterns align with the pre-festive surge in mobility and supply chain activity.
🔹 Refining Utilisation at 61.58%: A Turning Point?
Despite refinery shutdowns and crude supply constraints, national refining utilisation hit 61.58%, driven mainly by the Dangote Refinery.
This represents a significant rebound from previous years when utilisation levels hovered near zero.
BRANDECONOMY Insight: The Bigger Story Behind the Numbers
Nigeria’s fuel consumption and refining data paint a picture of a sector in transition—moving from chronic dependence on imports to emerging domestic resilience.
Three strategic themes stand out:
1. Dangote Refinery Is Now the Backbone of Nigeria’s Fuel Security
Its output compensates for NNPC refinery downtimes and narrows fuel-import gaps that once drained FX reserves.
2. Downstream Modernisation Is Finally Taking Root
Automation, better storage networks, modular refining projects and pipeline rehabilitation are aligning with national energy security goals.
3. Consumption Patterns Reflect a Growing, Mobile Economy
High PMS and diesel usage correlates with expanding transportation, logistics, commerce and industrial activity.
More LPG use mirrors shifts toward cleaner household energy.
The next frontier? Ensuring that Nigeria’s domestic refining is consistent, scalable and complemented by transparent distribution frameworks.
If current reforms continue—and supply chains strengthen—Nigeria is on track to not only shrink fuel imports but also become a net exporter in West Africa’s downstream market.
