Will Goodluck Ebele Jonathan PhD, President of the federal republic of Nigeria coast to victory if he chooses to run for the same office in 2015? The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leadership boasts that victory is certain. A motley crowd of vociferous associations and GEJ support groups led by Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) think so. President Jonathan’s political adversaries fear so and a high percentage of Nigerians believe so but the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its prospective candidates Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, General Muhammadu Buhari and Rabiu kwankwaso absolutely do not wish so. In this cover story BRANDPOWER examines the Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) political brand and tries to put in perspective his strengths, weaknesses and prospects of remaining president after May 29, 2015. It is a must read for all stakeholders in the brand Nigeria project…
The GEJ Brand Strengths
COMMITMENT TO FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS
President Jonathan has given a new lease of life to elections in Nigeria by strengthening the structures of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) through the appointment of credible Nigerians, review of the Electoral Act, timely release of adequate resources and establishment of a level playing field in his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and at the National level. As president of the largest democracy in Africa and the leader of the largest party in Africa, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has displayed a rare temperament in the face electioneering and electoral losses. We do not hear such proclamations as “This election is do or die” as did a past President.
GEJ has repeatedly demonstrated his unwavering commitment to the conduct of free, fair and credible elections. He did so in the 2011 general elections. After some youth corps members were brutally murdered in the course of their work with INEC, President Jonathan has always deployed a large detachment of soldiers to provide security and ensure that people’s votes count even with an outcry against such by the opposition.
Interestingly, the opposition parties have recoreded more victories during such elections. This was the case in Governorship elections in Edo, Ondo, Anambra and Ekiti and Imo States as against only one PDP victory in Osun state. President Jonathan is usually the first to congratulate the winner of those elections whether he is from his party or another party. It is on record that the Nigerian people, civil society and the international community have all generally adjudged all elections under the watch of President Jonathan to be free, fair and credible.
COMMITMENT TO THE RULE OF LAW
President Jonathan has established numerous times that he is a believer in the rule of law. On many occasions when even his party men and advisers expected him to intercede in the party’s favour or his own personal favour, he chose to respect the law. Examples include: the state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states where the elected governors were retained unlike what obtained in the past; the execution of court judgments deposing PDP governors; the re-instatement of the name of the University of Lagos after he named it Moshood Abiola University as well as the execution of the court judgment sacking the speaker of Adamawa state Umaru Finitiri as acting governor in the state and swearing in the illegally deposed deputy governor James Ngilari as the substantive governor in the aftermath of impeachment of governor Murtala Nyako.
COMMITMENT TO FAIR HEARING AND RESPECT FOR THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE
President Jonathan has displayed a commitment to fair hearing with the inauguration of the National Conference, an idea he had previously been very opposed to. He acceded to this in deference and respect to the preponderance of the calls by Nigerians from various sections of the society for the convocation of a national conference. The President also displayed this laudable leadership trait when he reversed himself on a number of occasions including but not limited to: re-instatement of fuel subsidy, reversal of the 2-year incubation of Nigerian sports and offer of amnesty to Boko Haram insurgents among others.
COMMITMENT TO AND RESPECT FOR DUE PROCESS
At the risk of losing his popularity, President Jonathan had always insisted on following due process before certain actions may be taken. This includes: the issues (cases) of Ms. Arunma Oteh, Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) whom the two houses of the National Assembly insisted must be sacked after an altercation with 2 members of the House of Representatives cost them their coveted positions. President Jonathan followed due process by suspending Ms. Oteh, setting up an appropriate committee to investigate the charges against her and re-instated her when it was discovered that she did not deserve to be removed.
COMMITMENT TO SOCIAL HARMONY
President Jonathan has through his speeches, actions and carriage shown the world that he is a man of peace and social harmony; he identifies with all Nigerians. President Jonathan joins Muslims during their fasting period as he does with the Christians. He also routinely adorns the dress types of various tribes and ethnic nationalities.
COMMITMENT TO TRANSFORMATIONAL EXCELLENCE
Under President Jonathan’s leadership, Nigeria has officially become the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world. President Jonathan is on record as shopping for whom he perceives as the best available hand for critical positions and assignments. He usually also gives such appointees the free hand to prove themselves.
This has led to huge transformational gains and unprecedented development in several facets of governance including: Agriculture, Power, Telecoms; Banking and Finance; Manufacturing; Entertainment; Sports; Oil & Gas; Tourism; Aviation; Railway and massive inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
COMMITMENT TO FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN RIGHTS AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
One of man’s greatest desired freedoms is the freedom of expression. President Jonathan has provided Nigerians that freedom bountifully. Even by President Jonathan’s own acknowledgement, he stands out as the world’s most criticized President. The beauty, however is that he is taking all the criticisms, insults and invectives in his stride as he calmly admonishes his critics and politicians generally to be decorous in their comments and patriotic in their attitude towards issues unfolding in the Nigerian polity. No one has been harassed or intimidated over such perceived unsavoury vituperations as Nigerians have long been used to.
COMMITMENT TO INTRA-PARTY DEMOCRACY
Mr. President’s leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party has revamped the floundering image of the party and is restoring the lost fortunes and glory of Africa’s largest political party. True to his nature and ideals, President Jonathan has been able to achieve this through a deft application of democratic principles in the running of the affairs of the party. By listening to all sides of an issue and reaching out to aggrieved and embattled members, President Jonathan has been able to provide leadership through Alhaji Adamu Muazu, PDP Chairman, whom he has aptly named the Game-Changer.
PERCEIVED WEAKNESSES
Critics of the Goodluck Ebele Jonathan brand are however not impressed with the above outlined strengths. They insist that corruption has gone on unabated under the Jonathan Presidency due to his ‘softness’. The same reason is alluded for the Boko Haram menace spiraling out of control in the North East and the continued seizure of the kidnapped Chibok girls.
Indeed while pointing out that the PDP led federal government has failed the country as he was delivering a speech at the 50th brirthday lecture of former governor of Bayelsa state, Timipre Sylva, Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos state observed that the present administration had continued to lie to Nigerians on many issues, including the abduction of over 200 Chibok girls and the alleged missing money from the federation account. He noted that the election of a university graduate as president has not helped to develop the country in the past three years. Pointing out that APC controlled states were performing better than the PDP-controlled states.
He then called on Nigerians to vote out the PDP in the 2015 election. Governor Fashola concluded his speech by saying: “…Nigerian people must find the courage to vote out an un-performing Government after it’s first term. This must be the mood when a Government lies about power, about security and about the economy which are the problems it was mandated to solve. This is the strongest message of a desire for development that the Nigerian people can send to the incoming government as well, that we will vote you out if you also do not develop our lives.”
Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe disagrees, describing Fashola’s statement as “blatant and obvious lies, delibrate and skillful misinformation. He said “…We admit that Governor Fashola may have been too occupied in Lagos and that may have narrowed his vision or precluded him from appreciating lofty developments by this administration all over the country. The government of President Goodluck Jonathan has never lied about its achievements, programmes, commitments and even challenges within the Nigerian context. In the last three years, through the execution of its transformation agenda, this administration, contrary to the assertions of Governor Fashola, has made significant achievements in all sectors of the economy.”
BRANDPOWER ANALYSIS:
From 2 online surveys conducted by BRANDPOWER magazine, up to 60 percent on our respondents believed that President Goodluck will win a re-election bid. The reasons are legion but they range from the mundane “he is our” rhetoric to the more logical reasons such as the president’s performance in agriculture, banking, industry, telecommunications and even power. Some believe that the insecurity in the country was created by political foes to make President Jonathan look incompetent and therefore incapable of leading the country, others are sabotage of the power reforms and petroleum sectors. Yet another group believes that that other perceived contenders may not fare any better.
The result of the monthly governance poll released by NOIPolls for the month of September 2014 seems to corroborate this as it was revealed that “74% of adult Nigerians approved of President Goodluck Jonathan’s Job Performance in the past 1 month. On the other hand, 14% of the respondents disapproved of the President’s job performance, while 12% were neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved. Current results represent a 13-point increase in the President’s approval rating from August 2014 and this increase is mainly as a result of significant increases observed in three geo-political regions; in the North-East, a 34% increase (approval ratings moved from 45%: Aug to 79%: Sep); in the North-West, a 16% increase (approval ratings moved from 45%: Aug to 61%: Sep) and in the South-West an 11% increase (approval ratings moved from 66%: Aug to 77%: Sep). Monthly job approval ratings are typically affected/influenced by key events that may have occurred during the month of review; key events in September include successes recorded by the Nigerian military over Boko Haram insurgents and the effective response of the government with respect to the Ebola Virus Disease.”
If this trend is maintained, contenders to the presidential throne will have a herculean task wresting power from President Jonathan.
AN ILL-PREPARED OPPOSITION
While the PDP leadership scored a major goal with the recent announcement of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as the sole candidate for their presidential primaries, the only serious opposition, the APC is yet to know its flagbearer. Muhammadu Buhari, Abubakar Atiku and Rabiu Kwankwaso are all contenders. None among them have embarked on any serious brand personality campaign to remind Nigerians of their strengths and vision. None has embarked on a sustained issues-driven campaign. None is engaging the president on topical national issues. None has been providing alternative positions on issues affecting the polity except for occasional sound bites. In the meantime President Jonathan’s multi-thematic and multi-media campaign has been long running through his various support groups. The APC strategy of acerbically criticizing every move of the Jonathan administration may generate ill-will for the president and the PDP administration but it definitely will not generate good-will for the APC. So the APC candidates need to be telling the electorate about the strengths of their party and their candidates not just about the weaknesses of Jonathan and the PDP. With barely a few months to go there is hardly enough time for whoever emerges the APC flagbearer to ‘sell’ himself appropriately to voters.
THE JUDICIAL OPTION
There are court cases and threats of court cases to challenge the eligibility of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to contest the 2015 presidential elections. The argument of the litigants is that President Jonathan has technically served out 2 terms having ruled for about a year and half to complete the late President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua’s tenure. Jonathan’s defence however is that he did not contest election as a presidential candidate but as a Vice-President. His first term he argues started when he won the election and was sworn in on May 29, 2011. It would be interesting to see how this plays out if it goes all the way to the supreme court because unless the opposition has other aces up their sleeves that we are presently not privy to it appears only God, the supreme court or President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan himself can stop the GEJ Brand from reigning beyond May 29, 2014.
